Olympics · resolved market
Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97a251d99327c01ee030c77f96f64b9973f7c7f0edb5b183e014353839f58c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x523c…0601backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…b44cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,321$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,070$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…927abacked Yes | 13c | 1,923$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…b82dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…be3abacked No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,476$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 15c | 1,428$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,040$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 78c | 1,008$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 17c | 963.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 20c | 947.52$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 26c | 771.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…65ffbacked Yes | 22c | 365.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 79c | 347.25$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 76c | 328.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…9ccbbacked Yes | 23c | 188.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…5383backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb8…2490backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…2c81backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…39c7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc0…cf33backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…cd16backed No | 80c | 29.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…5383backed No | 75c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…c700backed No | 75c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00aa…6b4bbacked No | 76c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…6bacbacked No | 78c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?this page
- Will Bingjie Li (CHN) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
- Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?Yes won
- Will Lani Pallister (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.