Olympics · resolved market
Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799e0a99312e7daca333239e42978ef2e4cc42f4a0e73fe2a749883a064538bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 19c | 35,601$6,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,646.56 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…3873backed Yes | 79c | 10,011$7,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 20c | 9,507$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 20c | 8,471$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.49 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 80c | 7,645$6,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 13c | 6,021$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 19c | 5,444$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.96 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked No | 18c | 2,924$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.79 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…092fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,431$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8be7backed No | 18c | 2,144$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 21c | 1,295$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.95 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…990dbacked No | 20c | 1,055$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Yes | 76c | 898.01$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…9ce1backed No | 19c | 653.58$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…511bbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 25c | 484.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 20c | 451.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1,708.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 24c | 398.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Yes | 80c | 351.28$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…b47abacked No | 26c | 347.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 19c | 260$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…1771backed No | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad79…7abbbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 16c | 177.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…e8f2backed No | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…da98backed Yes | 79c | 165$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed No | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5977…2136backed Yes | 75c | 126.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Yes | 79c | 121.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03da…7907backed Yes | 77c | 108.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 23c | 107.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed No | 40c | 100.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…39c7backed No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…d760backed Yes | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…5e60backed No | 32c | 74.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…994ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…9c04backed Yes | 78c | 56.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed No | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a97…34b9backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…9dc9backed No | 30c | 48.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9882backed Yes | 68c | 46.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…3a58backed Yes | 74c | 45.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…9b44backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 73c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed Yes | 80c | 36.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Yes | 79c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…f00abacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…f250backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…d8ecbacked Yes | 74c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…4f11backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…cc34backed Yes | 71c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…e500backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…abe0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f1…51edbacked Yes | 74c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4640…7137backed Yes | 73c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…d867backed Yes | 80c | 13.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?this page
- Will Ariarne Titmus (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
- Will Bingjie Li (CHN) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
- Will Lani Pallister (AUS) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
- Will another athlete win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.