NBA · resolved market
Will NBA competitor raise >$3b in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf45f1fb5bcb120065ba934578bd7dd877581c09464d459b2330a3c4bc1153d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2800…4dd0backed Yes | 24c | 1,155$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 32c | 882.12$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 24c | 592.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 18c | 482.45$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.48 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 274.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.82 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 66c | 272.98$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.06 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -9.0wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…d7a9backed No | 72c | 202.25$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 152 | 19.1%29 W · 123 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…8e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 183.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 78c | 122.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked No | 55c | 110.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee52…b98ebacked No | 57c | 109.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 76c | 106.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…167ebacked Yes | 30c | 105.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 97.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d3…b187backed Yes | 21c | 90.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 334 | 28.1%94 W · 240 L | -20.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabb…93eabacked No | 73c | 53.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…c9fcbacked No | 71c | 52.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 58c | 48.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…57aabacked Yes | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6175…c475backed Yes | 29c | 46.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c8…3458backed Yes | 47c | 40.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…55b3backed Yes | 31c | 40.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…0b14backed Yes | 30c | 37.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 79c | 30.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked No | 42c | 25.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaee…b610backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…2be6backed Yes | 79c | 18.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.