NFL · resolved market
NFL Draft: 1. Ward 2. Hunter 3. Carter 4. Campbell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f6f17dd935682a8b80d2e4f63a4510c0cb57a141c5a132da012d84c2d7241b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 78c | 2,373$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,350$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.28 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…1f93backed No | 23c | 849.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed No | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 5c | 234.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 80c | 223.62$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 21c | 206.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 79c | 200.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…649fbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…4b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 112.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…1dadbacked Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…b07ebacked Yes | 80c | 63.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…88dabacked No | 44c | 39.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 77c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.