Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate hike in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a5b5f52c6e7f2af6b06462c92d12ea7bd1662c87be11828da0722ff32373b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,492,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,310,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,492,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 0c | 38,631$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 0c | 30,975$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 5c | 27,791$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.36 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 15c | 21,123$3,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,263.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…4ccdbacked Yes | 4c | 16,034$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 15,685$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 0c | 10,592$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 10c | 10,500$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 6c | 8,964$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.39 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 8,323$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 8,192$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…c7cebacked Yes | 17c | 7,553$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…a151backed Yes | 10c | 7,150$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5c…87ebbacked Yes | 7c | 5,729$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…d5f4backed Yes | 18c | 5,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8966backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 2c | 4,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,694$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…8c70backed Yes | 18c | 3,351$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…c6dcbacked Yes | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5628backed Yes | 1c | 2,906$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 7c | 2,584$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f6…ec20backed Yes | 4c | 2,505$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02b…49eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,941$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,895$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3b…6ceebacked Yes | 1c | 1,787$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…075fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,406$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…d89abacked Yes | 15c | 1,317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d8…521dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,228$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…e960backed Yes | 1c | 1,214$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc960…6358backed Yes | 4c | 1,183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…068dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,022$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 3c | 873.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 4c | 850.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…6257backed Yes | 1c | 847.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…cd38backed Yes | 17c | 817.88$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…1427backed Yes | 6c | 767$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 7c | 716.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b0…1837backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…3ec3backed Yes | 6c | 632.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed Yes | 8c | 500.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…f657backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…a168backed Yes | 5c | 442.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…168cbacked Yes | 7c | 303.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…1516backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73b…7a73backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…32d2backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 6c | 201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc150…c944backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…e249backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…af2ebacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…6b18backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.