Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb50434f82edfaa48635826ca96936d7858f2b8dee936d8a9341b077c8a0bff6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,676$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 32c | 1,289$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.18 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 9c | 1,190$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed Yes | 4c | 1,120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…b7a5backed Yes | 14c | 915.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed Yes | 8c | 875$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 12c | 859.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 755.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…2817backed No | 73c | 697.79$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…68d1backed Yes | 2c | 685.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5d…5244backed Yes | 48c | 625.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 76c | 599.94$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 11c | 530$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 65c | 525$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 22c | 509$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 69c | 500$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 483.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 75c | 420.68$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8e…4ad8backed Yes | 26c | 400.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 28c | 359.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…9ad0backed Yes | 4c | 335.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…53ccbacked Yes | 6c | 259.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked Yes | 40c | 256.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…e515backed No | 69c | 230.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…4ad3backed Yes | 28c | 215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…fcc3backed Yes | 30c | 212.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 8c | 202.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…b32bbacked Yes | 50c | 198.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 18c | 189.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 66c | 172.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 167.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 51c | 156$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 25c | 147.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac54…dcc6backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 76c | 132.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 75c | 122.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 20c | 121$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 117.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 53c | 112.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 48c | 98.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 68c | 81.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 52c | 81.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…6ffebacked Yes | 25c | 78.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 78c | 76.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked Yes | 20c | 67.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e2bfbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…3055backed Yes | 52c | 58.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…b128backed No | 77c | 52.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 52.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf62…db7bbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…0d70backed No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…4c3cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.