UFC · resolved market
Hill vs. Ricci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687aa3eda2294c2c92d8536193990bc1f43f713152ace365f6a8a617c61a8b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ricciof Hill, Ricci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Hill | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Hill | 38c | 2,523$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.33 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…e808backed Ricci | 62c | 1,452$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Hill | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Ricci | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Hill | 24c | 952.29$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Ricci | 59c | 755.41$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…b994backed Ricci | 73c | 375$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Hill | 44c | 305.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.43 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Ricci | 65c | 229.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Hill | 40c | 225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed Ricci | 56c | 219$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Hill | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…5b3fbacked Ricci | 56c | 169.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Hill | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…3d11backed Ricci | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Hill | 44c | 83.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Hill | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Hill | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Hill | 44c | 40.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Ricci | 60c | 35.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Ricci | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Ricci | 58c | 32.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Ricci | 56c | 30.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Hill | 44c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Hill | 43c | 23.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hill vs. Riccithis page
- Cannonier vs. BorralhoBorralho won
- Magny vs. MoralesMorales won
- Ofli vs. SantosSantos won
- Shahbazyan vs. MeerschaertMeerschaert won
- Valentin vs. LoderLoder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.