UFC · resolved market
Cannonier vs. Borralho
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ac75a0e202dccfa92c7443a782c256a37afc1cd207ead7f20912b65c4266d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borralhoof Cannonier, Borralho
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Cannonier | 39c | 3,187$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Borralho | 72c | 1,395$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.42 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cannonier | 28c | 1,290$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.34 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Borralho | 69c | 995.36$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.35 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Borralho | 71c | 792.91$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Borralho | 79c | 721$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…b994backed Borralho | 77c | 640$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Cannonier | 28c | 627.65$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…83bbbacked Cannonier | 32c | 583.23$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Borralho | 66c | 567.63$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked Borralho | 69c | 559$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Cannonier | 33c | 517.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Borralho | 67c | 459.24$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…7dd6backed Cannonier | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Cannonier | 28c | 370$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Borralho | 79c | 365.92$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…aa32backed Cannonier | 34c | 308.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…1881backed Cannonier | 33c | 301.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Cannonier | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5521…5d75backed Cannonier | 34c | 295.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Borralho | 64c | 279.76$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Borralho | 66c | 236.61$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f35…eb5ebacked Cannonier | 30c | 168.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Cannonier | 29c | 166.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Cannonier | 28c | 152.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Borralho | 68c | 151.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Cannonier | 54c | 139.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…9c22backed Cannonier | 32c | 124.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…b591backed Borralho | 71c | 109.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Cannonier | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Borralho | 77c | 108.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Cannonier | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Borralho | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Borralho | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…616abacked Cannonier | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…a474backed Cannonier | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Cannonier | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…0151backed Borralho | 71c | 61.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Borralho | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Borralho | 75c | 56.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Cannonier | 31c | 52.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Cannonier | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9001…b232backed Borralho | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…50b9backed Borralho | 72c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55c3…2aafbacked Borralho | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Borralho | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2e…8b5dbacked Borralho | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cannonier vs. Borralhothis page
- Hill vs. RicciRicci won
- Magny vs. MoralesMorales won
- Ofli vs. SantosSantos won
- Shahbazyan vs. MeerschaertMeerschaert won
- Valentin vs. LoderLoder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.