UFC · resolved market
Ofli vs. Santos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464c59ae22d4e3e7a814704cd8705b07c5255c6a8c081431e600f764566d4631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santosof Ofli, Santos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Ofli | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…7dd6backed Santos | 68c | 1,132$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Ofli | 33c | 1,055$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.33 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Ofli | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Santos | 65c | 975.37$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.38 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Santos | 71c | 825.62$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Ofli | 25c | 593$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…b994backed Ofli | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Ofli | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Ofli | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Santos | 63c | 146.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Santos | 66c | 128.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Santos | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Ofli | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…fc5ebacked Ofli | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…616abacked Santos | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Santos | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ofli vs. Santosthis page
- Cannonier vs. BorralhoBorralho won
- Hill vs. RicciRicci won
- Magny vs. MoralesMorales won
- Shahbazyan vs. MeerschaertMeerschaert won
- Valentin vs. LoderLoder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.