UFC · resolved market
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ea84c183b65c7a5cc46fdc2c6a7fecce6acb3fda6290706c51c36a17ef18ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Meerschaertof Shahbazyan, Meerschaert
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Shahbazyan | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Meerschaert | 26c | 4,650$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Shahbazyan | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Shahbazyan | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Meerschaert | 24c | 400$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Meerschaert | 29c | 393$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked Meerschaert | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Shahbazyan | 75c | 325.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Shahbazyan | 70c | 274.35$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Shahbazyan | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Shahbazyan | 71c | 153.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Meerschaert | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Shahbazyan | 71c | 140.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…b994backed Meerschaert | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Shahbazyan | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…0b1bbacked Meerschaert | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Shahbazyan | 69c | 44.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3178…277dbacked Shahbazyan | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Shahbazyan | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…db40backed Shahbazyan | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaertthis page
- Cannonier vs. BorralhoBorralho won
- Hill vs. RicciRicci won
- Magny vs. MoralesMorales won
- Ofli vs. SantosSantos won
- Valentin vs. LoderLoder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.