Tweets · resolved market
Will trump tweet 3-4 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b72bf7a3c23b6420a156e4414eba33ebadb50888fd8412f1c3822f6d5c3ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134e…95bebacked No | 50c | 10,010$5,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,004.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…be17backed Yes | 50c | 10,006$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,003.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 0c | 6,993$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 5c | 1,150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 2c | 999.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 853.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 2c | 555$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 69c | 400$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 60c | 350$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 346.08$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 35c | 302.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.89 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…9311backed Yes | 76c | 285.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…1ba9backed No | 11c | 265.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 40c | 219.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.89 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cc…a72bbacked Yes | 30c | 210.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…0eb6backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 44c | 191.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 40c | 132.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…518abacked No | 38c | 111.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…1379backed Yes | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 55c | 102.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 99.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 24c | 95.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 55c | 92.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 42c | 92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 40c | 89.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde71…070ebacked Yes | 38c | 86.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7e…54ddbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 25c | 72.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 57c | 70.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes | 43c | 70.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…0bb6backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 37c | 45.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 47c | 41.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d4…a164backed Yes | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 51c | 31.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…aec0backed Yes | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…cb17backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 59c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…803cbacked Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…82b5backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will trump tweet 3-4 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will trump tweet 1-2 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 11-14 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 20 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 5-6 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 7-8 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 9-10 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.