Tweets · resolved market
Will trump tweet 1-2 times Nov 29-Dec 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424472bee959a8d1a85e6c6d2b78b283f3a59d1e57369fb334ffa2bf4634e96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 48c | 3,674$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.87 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…76b7backed Yes | 73c | 1,766$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668f…d2d7backed No | 50c | 1,317$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 35c | 1,121$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.63 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 43c | 549.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 38c | 529.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.23 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 37c | 488.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 60c | 459$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 4c | 458.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +517.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 32c | 449.81$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.32 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 41c | 396.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.94 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…0955backed Yes | 62c | 323.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 313.91$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 40c | 302.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 29c | 275.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 71c | 259.61$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 238.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 55c | 233.84$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 66c | 231.81$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 42c | 230.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 59c | 203.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 59c | 195$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 171.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 61c | 163$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 46c | 160.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…fcb0backed Yes | 63c | 159.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 42c | 158.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 64c | 157.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…3e1ebacked Yes | 70c | 143.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked No | 75c | 132.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…0b10backed Yes | 36c | 113.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…1379backed Yes | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da6…55a0backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…2193backed Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 53c | 89.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 55c | 86.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 41c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 40c | 81.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 41c | 77.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…ee62backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked No | 36c | 68.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7e…54ddbacked Yes | 44c | 68.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed No | 57c | 61.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 60c | 55.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0f…2bacbacked Yes | 66c | 54.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 38c | 53.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6168…ccdabacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 36.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 43c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…50fabacked Yes | 60c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…a85cbacked Yes | 41c | 31.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadab…2f80backed No | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 78c | 22.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…bf9bbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…4a8ebacked Yes | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will trump tweet 1-2 times Nov 29-Dec 6?this page
- Will trump tweet 11-14 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 20 or more times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 3-4 times Nov 29-Dec 6?Yes won
- Will trump tweet 5-6 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 7-8 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
- Will trump tweet 9-10 times Nov 29-Dec 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.