Ukraine · resolved market
Trump x Putin talk before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x206c93bb935c2441145e56553d0776564be837066749f64e4efc4d69e932ab87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 0c | 28,878$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 5,408$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 1c | 1,313$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,241$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…37adbacked No | 3c | 727.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…442ebacked No | 28c | 708.96$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 55c | 581.14$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.32 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 503.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 54c | 370.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 45c | 299.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 46c | 223.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…6bb9backed No | 47c | 213.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes | 62c | 190.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 47c | 149.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 145.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…798abacked Yes | 65c | 140.83$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 61c | 136.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 47c | 124.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 23c | 112.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66f…ea77backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 94.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…c3f5backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 53c | 66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988b…159fbacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 68c | 58.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…057abacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…f484backed No | 47c | 55.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 28c | 52.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 69c | 42.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ad…f61bbacked No | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 54c | 30.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…4667backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e0…6177backed Yes | 53c | 20.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…8321backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe525…f5cbbacked Yes | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.