NBA · resolved market
4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b50343b9456ca06ec8760044c8140a84daa9cd6b1ecc5b80bc6780a8ddc04a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 25c | 2,066$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed No | 78c | 1,953$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,067$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 80c | 1,049$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 50c | 622.1$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.52 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 18c | 512.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 21c | 395.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…7949backed Yes | 26c | 367.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3588…4eb8backed No | 77c | 340$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…76b9backed No | 77c | 310.1$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97a…9d5bbacked Yes | 34c | 300.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…64d0backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…6d9dbacked No | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…6a24backed No | 77c | 207.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…a8e8backed No | 78c | 161.64$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…c0b9backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…f025backed No | 78c | 73.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…4392backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb648…a893backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade0…dbacbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c2…794dbacked Yes | 73c | 37.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…0fbcbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…d22fbacked No | 78c | 18.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?this page
- 5 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?Yes won
- 6 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?No won
- 7 games in Celtics v. Mavs series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.