College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ce5cdbc01d14de03ea1884d45a07befc2bb22cf68a505dd704ab4bfe2da497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mississippi Stateof Texas, Mississippi State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas | 48c | 84,720$41,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,026.4 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Mississippi State | 52c | 35,770$18,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,319.63 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Mississippi State | 50c | 15,826$7,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,884.08 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Mississippi State | 52c | 15,188$7,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,290.4 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Mississippi State | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas | 52c | 8,500$4,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,395 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Mississippi State | 50c | 6,915$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,471.16 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Texas | 51c | 4,650$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Mississippi State | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Mississippi State | 49c | 3,173$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.8 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Mississippi State | 52c | 3,000$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mississippi State | 47c | 2,158$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.63 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Mississippi State | 49c | 2,004$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.12 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Mississippi State | 52c | 2,000$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Mississippi State | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.89 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Texas | 49c | 1,175$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.36 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Mississippi State | 52c | 1,110$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.35 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Mississippi State | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Mississippi State | 49c | 990$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.9 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Texas | 48c | 700$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Texas | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Mississippi State | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Mississippi State | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Mississippi State | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Texas | 49c | 277$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…5da2backed Mississippi State | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Mississippi State | 52c | 209.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Texas | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Texas | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texas | 50c | 177.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 119$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Mississippi State | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Texas | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Texas | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Mississippi State | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Mississippi State | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Texas | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Mississippi State | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Texas | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Mississippi State | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked Mississippi State | 52c | 39.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…8671backed Texas | 49c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…cdc5backed Texas | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Mississippi State | 52c | 26.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11eb…0fb0backed Mississippi State | 52c | 24.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-7.5)this page
- O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-6.5)Texas won
- Texas vs. Mississippi StateTexas won
- Texas vs. Mississippi State: O/U 45.5Over won
- Texas vs. Mississippi State: O/U 47.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.