TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Tulane vs. UTSA Roadrunners

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UTSA Roadrunnersof Tulane, UTSA Roadrunners
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$554,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$537,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 424 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Tulane54c80,781$43,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,442.8968440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Tulane51c78,044$40,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,115.0934250.3%172 W · 170 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed UTSA Roadrunners34c56,547$19,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,320.8611846.6%55 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed UTSA Roadrunners32c50,000$16,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,799.877126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked UTSA Roadrunners57c46,187$26,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,011.8730949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Tulane12c42,708$5,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,12516635.5%59 W · 107 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Tulane68c18,790$12,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,809.911942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed UTSA Roadrunners44c15,630$6,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,703.5585947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed UTSA Roadrunners50c15,141$7,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,512.3286243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked UTSA Roadrunners31c15,000$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,35015745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked UTSA Roadrunners32c14,584$4,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,943.3152641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Tulane50c13,200$6,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,661.9440541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed UTSA Roadrunners31c12,902$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,902.5293548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa617…111ebacked UTSA Roadrunners33c12,200$4,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,1741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…2829backed UTSA Roadrunners33c12,000$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,037.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+202.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked UTSA Roadrunners33c10,558$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,073.8681847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed UTSA Roadrunners32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8009540%38 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked UTSA Roadrunners32c10,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,799.952759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Tulane66c9,927$6,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,551.812,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked UTSA Roadrunners49c8,863$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,527.6817443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2d…1796backed Tulane67c7,500$5,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,02510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Tulane57c6,972$3,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,980.9564841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd023…0211backed Tulane67c6,700$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,48910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Tulane66c6,474$4,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,272.8426147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c6…2c17backed Tulane67c6,000$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked UTSA Roadrunners33c5,785$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.7975651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Tulane47c5,357$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.996540%26 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked UTSA Roadrunners33c5,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,35038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb672…e4e3backed Tulane59c4,927$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Tulane2c4,116$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7613149.6%65 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f95…8b86backed Tulane67c4,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,68010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Tulane25c4,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98011844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked UTSA Roadrunners32c3,859$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.5613450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed UTSA Roadrunners32c3,858$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,609.588040%32 W · 48 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed UTSA Roadrunners33c3,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34538546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed UTSA Roadrunners54c3,072$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.8955350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Tulane1c3,057$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12490%0 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed UTSA Roadrunners33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01017837.6%67 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed UTSA Roadrunners33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc2…b145backed Tulane68c2,941$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Tulane0c2,650$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10694.3%3 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed UTSA Roadrunners32c2,513$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,698.871,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Tulane1c2,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42790%0 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Tulane1c2,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9663243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed UTSA Roadrunners33c2,104$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.474748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Tulane68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3603148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Tulane68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed Tulane66c2,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UTSA Roadrunners52c1,917$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.2340244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked UTSA Roadrunners63c1,579$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.7662843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed UTSA Roadrunners33c1,515$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.0511540%46 W · 69 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x043d…2807backed UTSA Roadrunners34c1,400$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9243100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+301.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked UTSA Roadrunners35c1,368$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.8550358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Tulane1c1,332$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f6…b90cbacked Tulane16c1,268$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.73036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e0…b63fbacked Tulane49c1,244$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.471833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked UTSA Roadrunners32c1,200$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81647131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked UTSA Roadrunners31c1,120$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.8949253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6d…88f2backed UTSA Roadrunners32c1,050$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed UTSA Roadrunners31c1,007$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69512718.9%24 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed UTSA Roadrunners34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6604551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1747…bdf1backed UTSA Roadrunners33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd642…c499backed Tulane67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe627…ffaabacked Tulane12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Tulane66c999.99$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.992867.9%19 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UTSA Roadrunners50c996.98$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.8548546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tulane68c937$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.0621538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f85…3d39backed Tulane67c924$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ea…53e6backed Tulane66c900$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed UTSA Roadrunners32c886$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.481947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bba…ea6bbacked Tulane44c884.98$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tulane52c836$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.6557144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcd…3823backed UTSA Roadrunners33c821$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked UTSA Roadrunners38c755.38$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.5811436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…7807backed UTSA Roadrunners33c736$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+108.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked UTSA Roadrunners35c717.14$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.149053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Tulane49c649.23$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0110555.2%58 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328f…692abacked Tulane67c633$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked UTSA Roadrunners33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.0622437.5%84 W · 140 L-17.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9665…e721backed UTSA Roadrunners33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82e…afb1backed UTSA Roadrunners32c599.96$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed UTSA Roadrunners32c599.96$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.9713452.2%70 W · 64 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Tulane68c479.51$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.0713845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Tulane67c477$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.591020%2 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-58.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Tulane67c450$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.51258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Tulane63c444.6$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.614139%16 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Tulane67c409$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.032119%4 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-63.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed UTSA Roadrunners26c404.56$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.4213548.9%66 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce0…819cbacked Tulane53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+61.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf4d5…5696backed UTSA Roadrunners48c400$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked UTSA Roadrunners32c388.41$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1249443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked UTSA Roadrunners32c365.9$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8122030.5%67 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked UTSA Roadrunners34c360$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.626846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed UTSA Roadrunners53c356.03$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.326939.8%107 W · 162 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Tulane15c340$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.31414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb7b…f0bbbacked Tulane19c327.48$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed UTSA Roadrunners34c313.93$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.7721629.2%63 W · 153 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Tulane8c312.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2022…04b8backed Tulane66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002147.6%10 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick68cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Tulane67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20142244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.