Commodities · resolved market
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19966af675c9fd1a4db02b3cf7da257cfe505c0ff67332131471e9e03849c520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 62c | 9,115$5,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.83 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Yes | 49c | 6,962$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,418.11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 21c | 5,017$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.35 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f8…5373backed Yes | 6c | 4,686$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 64c | 4,593$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.25 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 75c | 2,302$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.93 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Yes | 39c | 2,227$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…3a89backed No | 78c | 2,198$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked No | 55c | 2,192$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 57c | 2,057$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.32 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 24c | 2,002$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 59c | 1,824$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.67 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed No | 29c | 1,738$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 1,666$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 31c | 1,582$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes | 49c | 1,312$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 40c | 1,146$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.41 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,107$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.59 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 26c | 1,050$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 48c | 1,000$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 56c | 809.05$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.02 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 74c | 763.61$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.47 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 60c | 756.01$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…bfbcbacked Yes | 47c | 667.09$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 36c | 666.66$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 17c | 621.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.71 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 16c | 619.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 54c | 617.23$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…0596backed No | 53c | 603.76$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 587.26$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.71 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 69c | 567.87$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.62 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 78c | 559.21$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.78 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…3291backed No | 40c | 532.41$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 29c | 523.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.61 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…7e18backed Yes | 45c | 504.73$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 31c | 449.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 24c | 444.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…e699backed Yes | 68c | 440.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed Yes | 25c | 439.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 24c | 415.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 71c | 406.32$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…86a5backed Yes | 27c | 404.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…71acbacked Yes | 50c | 400.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 29c | 380$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 19c | 373.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 49c | 368.08$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked No | 57c | 352.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 343.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…b589backed Yes | 54c | 340.76$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 35c | 330.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed No | 44c | 322.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 52c | 318.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 54c | 314.01$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed No | 38c | 302$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 294.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 78c | 285$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 11c | 280.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.93 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 18c | 277.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 50c | 273$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…afc9backed Yes | 59c | 266.97$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 264$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 76c | 261.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 254.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 37c | 251.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 245.95$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…4c3ebacked Yes | 66c | 241.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 34c | 232$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 63c | 229.66$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 223.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed No | 9c | 212.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 20c | 210$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 61c | 206.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 15c | 200.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…c82abacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 46c | 199.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…a707backed No | 69c | 197.36$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…8247backed Yes | 57c | 193.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 37c | 190.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…90ebbacked Yes | 60c | 188.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 74c | 186.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…9ddcbacked No | 70c | 183.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 56c | 178.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 59c | 172.9$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…9dd5backed Yes | 30c | 169.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 79c | 167.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 43c | 162.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…8abdbacked No | 62c | 162.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 66c | 158.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed No | 64c | 156.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 56c | 150.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…d377backed Yes | 24c | 150.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 44c | 149.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes | 42c | 144.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 139.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 55c | 136$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 20c | 135.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?this page
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Yes won
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.