Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81cc8a629b1f633542f1015514305fbefdbf578e578992efe17190edc49aea6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 40c | 889.53$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 14c | 746.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 59c | 703.1$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.46 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 59c | 681.52$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 436.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 17c | 431.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 20c | 415.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 20c | 407.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 53c | 374.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 10c | 368.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 38c | 323.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.46 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…7e18backed Yes | 49c | 265.26$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 263.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 250.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 50c | 226.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 28c | 207.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 25c | 203.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 201.94$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…d645backed Yes | 5c | 201.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 195$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 23c | 191.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 25c | 177.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…62b2backed No | 51c | 167$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 156.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…3267backed Yes | 49c | 153.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…8247backed Yes | 20c | 148.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…82f0backed Yes | 48c | 143.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 128.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…434abacked Yes | 29c | 120.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 43c | 117.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 99.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 91.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ba…13ccbacked Yes | 34c | 87.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 86.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…838abacked No | 57c | 86.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 81.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…6c1cbacked Yes | 50c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed No | 64c | 65.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 63c | 64.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 18c | 58.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 37c | 53.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…7e63backed Yes | 43c | 53.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 32c | 50.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…90ebbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 28c | 43.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 41.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 36.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…67edbacked Yes | 31c | 32.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 59c | 27.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 42c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…5afebacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed No | 69c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…a318backed No | 70c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 62c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?this page
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Yes won
- Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.