Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a5bc9701d7a29237f05fd6a76678d139413124a12092b7d1c334926f7a5425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 32c | 4,150$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 68c | 4,000$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed No | 1c | 2,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 48c | 2,238$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,110$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.4 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 11c | 1,078$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563e…a157backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 12c | 931.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.61 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…48dcbacked No | 2c | 912.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 10c | 899.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.97 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 28c | 897$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 24c | 810$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 22c | 750.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.06 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 48c | 663.06$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…f464backed Yes | 13c | 487.87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 11c | 452.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.74 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 420.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.23 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 28c | 395.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 18c | 388.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes | 8c | 368.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +224%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 24c | 359.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.86 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 339.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.12 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 30c | 324.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 32c | 312.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 16c | 311.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.72 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 264$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.67 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 75c | 230.38$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…7e18backed Yes | 41c | 217.8$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580a…a236backed Yes | 17c | 178.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 171$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 8c | 165.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 135.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 135.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 24c | 135.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.03 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 15c | 129.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked Yes | 27c | 127$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…c076backed Yes | 29c | 109.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 17c | 101.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 20c | 98.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d5…fb20backed No | 70c | 73.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 44cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 22c | 72.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 28c | 72.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…893ebacked Yes | 23c | 64.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 60.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…a707backed Yes | 18c | 56.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…1b56backed Yes | 36c | 55.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 36c | 54.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…7e63backed Yes | 29c | 51.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 68c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 68c | 42.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 22.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?this page
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.