College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b01c63b955b0b88e11d3b584d7d5b6ebe06e6a228f1602a755a27180d2e6bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Arizona State, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arizona State | 48c | 26,646$12,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,801.66 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Arizona State | 48c | 10,393$4,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.04 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Houston | 53c | 9,019$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280.89 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Houston | 54c | 8,554$4,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,971.02 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Houston | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Houston | 51c | 3,809$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.25 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Houston | 51c | 3,086$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.27 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Houston | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Houston | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona State | 39c | 737.7$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.7 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…08fbbacked Houston | 61c | 737.7$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Houston | 55c | 730$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Houston | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…5da2backed Houston | 51c | 208$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Houston | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Houston | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Houston | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Houston | 51c | 90.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Houston | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Arizona State | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Houston | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…cee5backed Arizona State | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Arizona State | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)this page
- Houston vs. Arizona StateHouston won
- Houston vs. Arizona State: O/U 46.5Under won
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona State (-8.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.