College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arizona State (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ffbb425c6900811f569e7272bdc0ea3feb531a3fbbe876acc074d94416abe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houstonof Arizona State, Houston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3657…6b14backed Houston | 57c | 178,000$101,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,539.97 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Arizona State | 43c | 45,736$19,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,666.42 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Arizona State | 43c | 40,000$17,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,200 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arizona State | 43c | 25,574$10,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,996.58 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Arizona State | 43c | 14,750$6,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.36 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Arizona State | 43c | 12,160$5,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,230 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Arizona State | 43c | 9,440$4,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,059.2 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arizona State | 43c | 9,279$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,014.76 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona State | 43c | 8,283$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,561.35 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Arizona State | 46c | 4,811$2,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.11 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Arizona State | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Houston | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Arizona State | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Arizona State | 45c | 1,950$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.5 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Arizona State | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Arizona State | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Arizona State | 43c | 362.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arizona State | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Arizona State | 43c | 175$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Arizona State | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Arizona State | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Houston | 56c | 89.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arizona State | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Houston | 58c | 40.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Houston | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…8e11backed Houston | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona State (-8.5)this page
- Houston vs. Arizona StateHouston won
- Houston vs. Arizona State: O/U 46.5Under won
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona State (-7.5)Houston won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.