College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbaea69caa928ca31681ffe853c8a4837f3dcf0369f290bba1b4be2b6f3ca2fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mississippi Stateof Florida Gators, Mississippi State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Florida Gators | 51c | 4,545$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.16 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Mississippi State | 49c | 3,061$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Florida Gators | 51c | 1,630$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.29 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Mississippi State | 48c | 1,502$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.04 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Florida Gators | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 1,417$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.82 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Mississippi State | 49c | 1,025$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.75 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Mississippi State | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Florida Gators | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Mississippi State | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Mississippi State | 49c | 387.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Mississippi State | 46c | 233.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Florida Gators | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Florida Gators | 51c | 209.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…5da2backed Mississippi State | 49c | 178.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Mississippi State | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Mississippi State | 50c | 70.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Mississippi State | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mississippi State | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida Gators | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…5084backed Mississippi State | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida Gators (-9.5)this page
- Mississippi State vs. Florida GatorsFlorida Gators won
- Mississippi State vs. Florida Gators: O/U 50.5Under won
- O/U 51.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.