College Football · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d82d73986f7d28d3734607eee44ab34e72787d36c28af8cf92f6ce2c16b00fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnatiof Cincinnati, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Baylor | 51c | 29,315$14,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,843.68 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cincinnati | 48c | 12,615$6,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,525.92 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 11,612$5,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,806 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Cincinnati | 51c | 5,000$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Baylor | 52c | 4,824$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,508.48 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Cincinnati | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Baylor | 51c | 2,151$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.01 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Cincinnati | 48c | 2,000$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Cincinnati | 48c | 1,573$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.77 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Cincinnati | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Baylor | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati | 47c | 644.53$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Baylor | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed Cincinnati | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Cincinnati | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Cincinnati | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Cincinnati | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Baylor | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baylor | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Cincinnati | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cincinnati | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Baylor | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati (-3.5)this page
- Baylor vs. CincinnatiCincinnati won
- O/U 67.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati (-4.5)Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.