College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfbc5bf945b4a1a15097d47c6e88d08a8318f2b6c9f90c9e2cb3892a1e48867d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Stateof Florida State, Wake Forest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Florida State | 49c | 20,243$9,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,326.18 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wake Forest | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wake Forest | 46c | 3,609$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.89 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Florida State | 51c | 3,241$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,601.24 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Florida State | 53c | 2,700$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Florida State | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Wake Forest | 50c | 2,180$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.48 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Wake Forest | 49c | 2,050$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.5 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Wake Forest | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Florida State | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Wake Forest | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Wake Forest | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Florida State | 49c | 205$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida State | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Wake Forest | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Wake Forest | 50c | 198.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Florida State | 51c | 141$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Florida State | 54c | 125.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Florida State | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Wake Forest | 47c | 120.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Florida State | 50c | 99.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Wake Forest | 48c | 72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wake Forest | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…8bc3backed Wake Forest | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Wake Forest | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Wake Forest | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-10.5)this page
- O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Florida State (-11.5)Florida State won
- Spread: Florida State (-8.5)Florida State won
- Spread: Florida State (-9.5)Florida State won
- Wake Forest vs. Florida StateFlorida State won
- Wake Forest vs. Florida State: O/U 50.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.