College Football · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43f04f9467a44090ff3ed8c926c6e1512f170309541f65fe89bcfa0243e7dfa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mississippi Stateof Arkansas, Mississippi State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Arkansas | 53c | 7,365$3,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.31 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mississippi State | 47c | 6,679$3,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,539.71 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Arkansas | 54c | 4,500$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mississippi State | 46c | 4,500$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…0131backed Mississippi State | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4539…242abacked Mississippi State | 48c | 1,320$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…e69ebacked Mississippi State | 48c | 1,320$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Mississippi State | 47c | 1,003$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.84 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…2e0ebacked Arkansas | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…458ebacked Arkansas | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arkansas | 53c | 755$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64dd…ff48backed Arkansas | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…5c7abacked Arkansas | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…6783backed Arkansas | 52c | 570$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…5051backed Arkansas | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Arkansas | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Mississippi State | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Mississippi State | 48c | 325$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Arkansas | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Mississippi State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Arkansas | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Mississippi State | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Mississippi State | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arkansas | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Mississippi State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas (-4.5)this page
- Mississippi State vs. ArkansasMississippi State won
- Mississippi State vs. Arkansas: O/U 66.5Over won
- O/U 67.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.