College Football · resolved market
Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d269b4be6fdc0533b1400a3d238b5d713d8a468d989799c236476259a50c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wake Forestof SMU Mustangs, Wake Forest
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 16,359$8,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,393.27 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Wake Forest | 48c | 9,299$4,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.56 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Wake Forest | 49c | 9,022$4,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,567.68 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 7,788$3,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,816.2 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Wake Forest | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed SMU Mustangs | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wake Forest | 51c | 3,921$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.29 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 2,498$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.41 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed SMU Mustangs | 43c | 2,102$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.6 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 53c | 1,213$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.39 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Wake Forest | 63c | 1,108$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wake Forest | 50c | 1,026$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.09 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wake Forest | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Wake Forest | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Wake Forest | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Wake Forest | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Wake Forest | 51c | 280$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda28…2992backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 218$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…d081backed Wake Forest | 51c | 217.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Wake Forest | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96f…d46bbacked Wake Forest | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Wake Forest | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Wake Forest | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Wake Forest | 51c | 187.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked SMU Mustangs | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Wake Forest | 44c | 115$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…2c5abacked Wake Forest | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed SMU Mustangs | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Wake Forest | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Wake Forest | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Wake Forest | 50c | 35.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed SMU Mustangs | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…de3abacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…698bbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-3.5)this page
- O/U 53.5Under won
- SMU Mustangs vs. Wake ForestWake Forest won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-4.5)Wake Forest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.