TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,339
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,339 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ca1…13b5backed No18c22,022$3,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,890.9514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes80c12,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-28%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed Yes76c6,326$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.322661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No11c5,965$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.8425311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No22c5,776$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.0414456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c4,443$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.035327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes73c4,252$3,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.911839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No11c3,837$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed No47c2,475$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.784535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes68c2,237$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.6915029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No28c1,563$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44014147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes54c1,198$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.154810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2f…9e9abacked No25c1,179$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.381540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes63c1,070$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes71c1,000$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2951136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No19c989.95$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.092218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e3…58edbacked No35c986.19$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3504252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No25c982.56$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.172176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf477…1c28backed Yes69c918.65$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.693435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No44c913.98$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.973545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No23c892.2$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes71c860.96$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.181952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No16c823.16$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2817232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No33c798.68$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.7425528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No27c785.42$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2129257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Yes60c752.89$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf954…ef7abacked No13c752.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.68650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+76.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No39c712.41$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.393756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dfe…c769backed No29c653.51$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No34c606.39$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.637843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No30c599.99$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1794247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed No34c577.61$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.343627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a66…24f9backed No40c548.76$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes79c507.66$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.243666.7%24 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes45c502.66$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.886639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6945…4402backed No25c490.43$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+110.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed No39c481.44$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.131650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No8c469.68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1120026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d21…59f7backed Yes68c460$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.42835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f3…28d1backed No22c459.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.34252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes76c448.86$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.867360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e9…1279backed No12c443.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6877…de8abacked No26c425$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…7822backed Yes78c368.81$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.986160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No38c330.19$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.193743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed No40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-77.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.997247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No39c285.78$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No40c285.76$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.315451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No36c277.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed No43c277.03$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.442536%9 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes56c262.29$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7213622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes78c257.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.862653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d2…45b5backed Yes71c254.33$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.073461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No19c250$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4027…ac7fbacked Yes59c227.3$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No14c226.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.235341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No12c225.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.568232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed Yes68c225.78$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.253545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No53c223.57$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7923435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x342e…7e88backed Yes76c222$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.281471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+40.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes69c216.69$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x896f…b561backed Yes71c211.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.593839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No27c211.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10810625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c62…3900backed Yes46c194.54$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No17c190.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.417122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed No12c190.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.885757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed No25c190.28$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.326431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No32c186.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.432548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78da…e609backed No29c178.05$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.82661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes54c175.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2313429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…6dd2backed No41c169.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…0b93backed No33c168.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551580%12 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed No32c168$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.433268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes76c156.07$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.387462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.52133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes52c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.58652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb495…6fbabacked Yes67c149.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes72c148.51$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No23c148.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.778711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d78…6929backed Yes73c137.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4f…c055backed Yes67c130.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes47c127.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.641526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No25c126.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.169962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes60c119.65$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.565461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No28c117.86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9198…6b22backed Yes51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.652352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed Yes61c102.07$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No48c101.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe3…e366backed Yes49c101.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.262450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057d…4d1fbacked No40c101.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.441844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493467.6%23 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.