Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72b572c31b8cc32cd1a6fca1c919a6c930e243b5de8d7fb2e379ea32e0349c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 18c | 22,022$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,890.95 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 80c | 12,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 76c | 6,326$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.32 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 11c | 5,965$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.84 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 22c | 5,776$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.04 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,443$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 73c | 4,252$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.9 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 11c | 3,837$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.1 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 47c | 2,475$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.78 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 68c | 2,237$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.69 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 28c | 1,563$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 54c | 1,198$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.15 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…9e9abacked No | 25c | 1,179$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 63c | 1,070$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,000$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 19c | 989.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 35c | 986.19$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 25c | 982.56$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.17 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 69c | 918.65$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.69 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 44c | 913.98$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 23c | 892.2$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 71c | 860.96$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 823.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 33c | 798.68$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.74 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 27c | 785.42$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 60c | 752.89$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…ef7abacked No | 13c | 752.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 39c | 712.41$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…c769backed No | 29c | 653.51$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 34c | 606.39$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.63 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 30c | 599.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 34c | 577.61$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…24f9backed No | 40c | 548.76$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 79c | 507.66$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 45c | 502.66$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.88 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…4402backed No | 25c | 490.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 39c | 481.44$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 8c | 469.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 68c | 460$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…28d1backed No | 22c | 459.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 76c | 448.86$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…1279backed No | 12c | 443.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6877…de8abacked No | 26c | 425$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 78c | 368.81$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 38c | 330.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…bcd2backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 51c | 299.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 39c | 285.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 40c | 285.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 36c | 277.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 43c | 277.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 56c | 262.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 78c | 257.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 71c | 254.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…ac7fbacked Yes | 59c | 227.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 14c | 226.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 12c | 225.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 68c | 225.78$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 53c | 223.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 76c | 222$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 69c | 216.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 71c | 211.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 27c | 211.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c62…3900backed Yes | 46c | 194.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 17c | 190.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 12c | 190.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 25c | 190.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 32c | 186.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…e609backed No | 29c | 178.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 54c | 175.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…6dd2backed No | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 33c | 168.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 32c | 168$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 76c | 156.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 52c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…6fbabacked Yes | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 148.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 23c | 148.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…6929backed Yes | 73c | 137.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…c055backed Yes | 67c | 130.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 47c | 127.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 25c | 126.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 60c | 119.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 28c | 117.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed Yes | 61c | 102.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 48c | 101.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 49c | 101.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 40c | 101.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.