Middle East · resolved market
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2609f28f86ecebe7428567b74fd2148ed649e76fadf40b0ae15003344003be6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e2c…eadebacked Yes | 8c | 17,709$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…3eb9backed Yes | 3c | 11,001$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 2c | 5,793$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Yes | 2c | 5,379$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22d…79f2backed Yes | 5c | 4,787$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 4,636$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 4c | 4,371$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.34 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9e…6d4fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…ae49backed Yes | 3c | 3,146$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7319backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,525$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…8387backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…0306backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,776$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 3c | 1,578$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…3cf8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 781.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…2313backed Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 662.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8241backed Yes | 2c | 650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfa…4a5fbacked Yes | 6c | 584.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…0854backed Yes | 2c | 574.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 561.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…4c33backed Yes | 2c | 549.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…8334backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…bd12backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed Yes | 6c | 510$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 505.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…8ec6backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb247…7a27backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 488$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0318…d067backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 292$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d45…7d69backed Yes | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 76c | 246.37$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 6c | 223.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +7.6wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 23c | 77.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 21c | 53.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.