Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21340a040c3775823f60f5a3a111b3cc8329d5de59c480ba81e763098fad2d4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes | 14c | 4,305$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 3,243$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.61 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 18c | 1,990$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.2 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785c…affebacked Yes | 39c | 1,667$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…b633backed Yes | 14c | 1,365$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 13c | 1,223$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 50c | 1,190$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 14c | 825$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 734.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…a07fbacked Yes | 19c | 702.63$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 600.07$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…8eeebacked Yes | 6c | 462.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 5c | 406$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 13c | 268.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 15c | 252.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 14c | 242.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…1031backed Yes | 14c | 221.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…5c06backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 14c | 206.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…505abacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b5…42f9backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 12c | 171.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 14c | 164.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…c9c8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 14c | 121.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 11c | 115.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…9075backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.