Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161b38a074592494a723a3da4004085d4d9cda70b2d1c25bad52b0ace0e07579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,073$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.68 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 19c | 1,581$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 560$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 19c | 529$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 80c | 259.37$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…1031backed Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 20c | 197.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 21c | 185.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Yes | 20c | 101.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Yes | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 21c | 49.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 79c | 32.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.