TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Atlanta Bravesof Athletics, Atlanta Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,595
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,595 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd38a…8d26backed Athletics46c108,739$49,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,755.3717652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Atlanta Braves56c73,717$40,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,752.5615550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves55c24,313$13,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,935.151,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Atlanta Braves55c7,350$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,337.3577053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Athletics16c5,674$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.6311125.2%28 W · 83 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Atlanta Braves56c5,644$3,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.312070%14 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+47.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d3d…3165backed Atlanta Braves55c4,809$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Atlanta Braves57c4,608$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.952,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Athletics44c4,049$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,781.751,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Athletics45c3,395$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.7631149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Atlanta Braves57c3,217$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.274148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves54c3,069$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.825,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Atlanta Braves55c2,185$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.3616547.3%78 W · 87 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Athletics43c2,123$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.7311741.9%49 W · 68 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Athletics6c1,725$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.191,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Athletics10c1,678$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4530140.5%122 W · 179 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Athletics44c1,536$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.041,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Athletics17c1,487$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.8417768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Athletics44c1,408$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.3761947.7%295 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Atlanta Braves77c1,013$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.4354941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics12c996.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.551,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics44c939.26$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.286,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics14c932.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Atlanta Braves55c931.32$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.7714047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Athletics45c650.37$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5425751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Athletics44c641.52$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.274156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Athletics41c615.99$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.837833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Atlanta Braves56c590.26$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.751,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics30c549.26$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24f6…7ce9backed Athletics11c548.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4710634.9%37 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked Athletics45c547.31$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.292152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4684…3944backed Athletics14c501.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1470%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Atlanta Braves56c492.61$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.7559150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Athletics45c437.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0322546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Athletics46c433.44$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.381855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics45c416$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.275049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Athletics44c392.78$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8267849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics46c321.23$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.761,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Atlanta Braves57c311.15$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.796958%40 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Athletics11c289.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9455541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics25c277.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.186,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves63c234.7$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.865,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Atlanta Braves73c234.31$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics45c221.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.51,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Athletics45c218.92$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.528847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Athletics5c199.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.371,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Athletics44c197.04$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.73,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Atlanta Braves56c197.04$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.71,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6970…ef65backed Athletics17c194.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.64238.1%16 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x125f…b7e8backed Atlanta Braves55c179.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.62142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves56c174.96$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9815857%90 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Atlanta Braves56c168.89$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3115257.2%87 W · 65 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Athletics24c156.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5284122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Athletics43c155.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9384049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Athletics45c151.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1517155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics28c148.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.811,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Athletics33c147.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.529219.6%18 W · 74 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Atlanta Braves55c145.09$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2921856%122 W · 96 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Atlanta Braves55c144.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1726255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics43c143.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.752,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Atlanta Braves56c140.75$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9366551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Atlanta Braves72c135.26$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.687753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics43c134.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.751,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Athletics17c130.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.726243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics9c118.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x1ef7…d842backed Atlanta Braves56c117.87$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.861546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Atlanta Braves57c116.26$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.046654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Athletics44c111.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2617037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Atlanta Braves55c111.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3138455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c59…ad51backed Athletics45c109.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2621545.6%98 W · 117 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4e…1483backed Atlanta Braves56c105.56$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.457159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5061…a7dcbacked Atlanta Braves58c102.54$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.428348.2%40 W · 43 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Athletics14c101.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1665050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Athletics43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4360350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Athletics43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4335245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb3…6c6bbacked Atlanta Braves55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Athletics43c92.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1617050%85 W · 85 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19a8…b852backed Atlanta Braves57c90.89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.081560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Athletics45c89.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3435650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Atlanta Braves55c88.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4015757.3%90 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Athletics15c88.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3216946.2%78 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Athletics45c87.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4158943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…4acabacked Athletics45c87.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Atlanta Braves57c86.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1611352.2%59 W · 54 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Athletics44c81.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3639850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics45c77.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.022,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics27c73.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Athletics45c72.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90d…e7d6backed Atlanta Braves56c70.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Athletics45c65.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5528347.7%135 W · 148 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed Atlanta Braves55c62.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.192560%15 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+61.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Atlanta Braves55c60.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0420551.7%106 W · 99 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…5bedbacked Atlanta Braves55c59.11$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.67447.3%35 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Atlanta Braves55c55.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8840846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked Atlanta Braves60c55.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.123040%12 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Athletics45c54.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.638243.9%36 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves56c52.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2256946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Athletics30c51.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6695041.5%394 W · 556 L-48.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Athletics45c50.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8826151%133 W · 128 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ec…5891backed Atlanta Braves55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59043.3%39 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.