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Champions League · resolved market

Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3eb4…5821backed No75c148,000$111,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,000475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9f…eda2backed Yes25c148,000$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f36…6c86backed No75c9,991$7,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd246…1c41backed Yes25c9,982$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No74c2,221$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.4136851.1%188 W · 180 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x679e…66d1backed Yes26c1,303$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.81637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505038%19 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes24c999.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb8…1b30backed No75c978.3$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb2…3f22backed Yes25c978.3$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.58540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No74c695.74$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8919453.6%104 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes26c604.22$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15512230.3%37 W · 85 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2caf…239ebacked Yes26c595.08$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked No74c594.81$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6512359.3%73 W · 50 L+12.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253040%12 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa30c…9f44backed No76c449.13$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b51…9c96backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+32.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdea…2d7dbacked Yes26c382.62$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Yes13c359.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7930754.1%166 W · 141 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb73d…0b78backed Yes25c286$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c285.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4525735%90 W · 167 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ace…87e0backed Yes26c269.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4595…8618backed No76c266.87$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+104.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e75…7f86backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c27…1e28backed Yes26c261.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe822…8ad9backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked No75c185$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.253076.7%23 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b4a…c553backed Yes25c181$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c53…2ecfbacked No75c163$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed No75c152.52$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.811464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7f…00c2backed Yes25c135$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No74c131.9$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2946956.5%265 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd56…7835backed No75c123$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x937f…a8e9backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x143f…1ad2backed Yes25c119.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…c769backed Yes17c116.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fca…ce68backed Yes25c112$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Yes26c108.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19538.9%37 W · 58 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58a6…d388backed Yes25c104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2611218.8%21 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fa0…e7cfbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85dd…3194backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510419.2%20 W · 84 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd965…7fd4backed No75c94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b7…1f27backed No75c90$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfa…12a3backed Yes24c87.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.04837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10a…b2d1backed Yes16c87.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+43.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb62b…b3ecbacked No75c83$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcde3…a041backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked Yes24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24032.5%13 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202931%9 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cd…9973backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203542.9%15 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8635…3423backed Yes25c76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes24c69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5629136.8%107 W · 184 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc9…c2a2backed Yes25c68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…1730backed Yes23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a19…0cb7backed Yes25c64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…d119backed Yes25c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…55bdbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c60…8b58backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked No76c59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.164158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8b…f2d6backed No75c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817a…0a90backed Yes23c57.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311635.3%41 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf87…52c1backed Yes25c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes26c52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02d…fe93backed Yes26c50.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47ee…a079backed No75c46.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick53cpaid+58.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a0e…c11abacked No75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes26c43.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3713238.6%51 W · 81 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x72b7…2f0bbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109645.8%44 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33dc…415ebacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc5c…aa39backed No75c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2c…cc02backed No75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ce…9ef9backed No75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d7c…3d13backed No75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacfb…b664backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25d4…3e33backed No75c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433c…52dabacked No75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad0…9acbbacked No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2382…74b8backed No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…492cbacked No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3306…9a14backed No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x666d…fb42backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb3e…45b3backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1161…78cfbacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c3…d6ddbacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8a…1635backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…db88backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabaa…1a97backed No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.238456.8%218 W · 166 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb15a…244abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c12…be19backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc621…58b9backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4045…977dbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.