TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No72c39,342$28,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,839.063,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes46c32,754$15,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,012.3710553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes17c26,930$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,678.921216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No54c16,060$8,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,387.62740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No55c10,563$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,763.1469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827f…7f59backed Yes45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5001553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed Yes46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.29per pick44cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No71c6,863$4,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.9375142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No55c6,388$3,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,886.7856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No54c6,380$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.83154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5bd…2182backed No55c5,461$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No55c4,491$2,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.914658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked No54c4,400$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0110…3b75backed Yes41c4,034$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes45c3,154$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.315134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes32c3,057$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.751,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3804252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No48c3,000$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.022365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Yes46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed No54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No67c2,862$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.2710463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes49c2,796$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.3216060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes49c2,778$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.3815064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No60c2,753$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.541,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes45c2,687$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.1533945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No73c2,367$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.8653645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked No54c2,180$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+73.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked No55c2,079$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.362948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes33c2,000$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6584544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Yes1c1,866$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.483020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked No54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.922040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No50c1,750$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…f37fbacked No54c1,500$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6904252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes46c1,482$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.6912651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No54c1,447$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.25457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes47c1,413$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6645444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No55c1,294$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.4244749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes45c1,232$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.319854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes2c1,231$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Yes45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe206…38cebacked Yes45c1,101$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Yes46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes21c1,047$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.654650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes18c964.63$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1723138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No54c940.83$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.783748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed No69c813.19$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.922650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1036…fb48backed Yes46c793.48$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3651861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes10c790$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ac…188dbacked Yes45c738.4$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.282040%8 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-25.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes45c700$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick38cpaid-87.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed No54c599.54$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.792661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fd1…7511backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Yes45c555.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed No54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes10c500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4915847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes27c474.11$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9456951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Yes6c468.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7512832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a83…195bbacked Yes45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No54c443.99$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2314364.3%92 W · 51 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5445…439ebacked Yes45c439.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-44.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes46c436.96$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018363.9%53 W · 30 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e5c…e4f6backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes24c411.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aea…ec91backed No55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes13c399.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.59621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c399.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.37714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No73c355.65$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5923842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes39c352.91$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x789b…4c08backed No73c348.35$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.241735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-45.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa451…b40dbacked Yes15c333.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes60c333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.84856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes15c324.51$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.682035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadf2…8f6bbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No55c299.99$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1369746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No72c273$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4422669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed No55c272.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.554252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes46c271.74$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1255851.7%30 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No70c268.6$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5844655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc662…592fbacked Yes47c266.53$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1158248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b1a…16b7backed Yes45c233.33$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fc…1511backed Yes19c224.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.572114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…bcd8backed Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked No54c216.74$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes11c214.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6416542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6564…8846backed Yes44c213.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Yes9c207.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…a8f5backed Yes46c202.54$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dcf…bcdfbacked Yes15c201.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9215453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x621c…ae1bbacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked No56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8814539.3%57 W · 88 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.