Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20c3e03e1ede5022b02738a3ef877a532e1948cd71598322161ecf8249015d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 10,599$6,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,667.08 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 65c | 6,591$4,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,284.45 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…b988backed No | 77c | 4,011$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 76c | 3,949$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 3,615$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.22 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 45c | 3,205$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.93 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 2,349$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 2,247$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 55c | 2,181$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.39 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 47c | 2,074$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 74c | 1,788$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.01 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 46c | 1,739$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.13 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 34c | 1,381$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.69 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…9801backed Yes | 76c | 1,332$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 72cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 74c | 1,263$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.04 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 40c | 1,178$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.71 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 76c | 1,057$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.68 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…8da2backed No | 47c | 1,039$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 46c | 999$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.46 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 980$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 29c | 909.45$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.71 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed No | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 40c | 838.78$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.84 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Yes | 47c | 833$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +831.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe271…1570backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 78c | 759.28$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.83 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 682$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.82 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 64c | 679.69$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed No | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 24c | 657.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 33c | 620.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked No | 76c | 603.87$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.93 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…6995backed No | 77c | 509.39$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 468$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.68 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed No | 38c | 451.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.55 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 71c | 438.79$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.64 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 76c | 425.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 74c | 373.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 40c | 366.7$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.05 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 365.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 34c | 338.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Yes | 54c | 309.24$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 56c | 304.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.67 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…ea56backed Yes | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…e345backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 49c | 274.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 75c | 249.91$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1523…2e5fbacked Yes | 25c | 243.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 23c | 241.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 25c | 234.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…12babacked No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…ccc9backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 78c | 185.63$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed No | 76c | 172.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 63c | 151.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…a8f5backed No | 76c | 151.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 25c | 136.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 68c | 127.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 74c | 125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 23c | 122.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.95 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…8846backed No | 46c | 116.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 56c | 114.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 22c | 102.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…47eabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920c…01e5backed No | 76c | 91.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 24c | 89.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b3…5c29backed No | 75c | 87.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 25c | 87.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf621…679cbacked Yes | 68c | 83.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Yes | 48c | 81.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…3050backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…32c0backed Yes | 18c | 75.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed No | 28c | 74.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3053…8b0dbacked No | 45c | 67.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-10?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.