Fifa International · resolved market
Will Colombia beat Paraguay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92346e1c88ff4a85f32a716e026110d38b86be59dddf6b45c9f06ed4ef898077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -9.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 33c | 499.97$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.98 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 63c | 324.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 33c | 301.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 33c | 286.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed No | 37c | 270.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 30c | 194$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 67c | 82.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 34c | 67.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked No | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 66c | 55.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…2e4dbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…d97fbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…fd4abacked Yes | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…d717backed Yes | 66c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Colombia beat Paraguay?this page
- Will Colombia vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Paraguay beat Colombia? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.