Champions League · resolved market
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fbe9257950868d9e367f4466c79a3b997584e327c6b69d0a6f7204a0b758e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Yes | 15c | 39,505$5,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,881.13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 16c | 12,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 13c | 7,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 4,100$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 3,500$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 14c | 2,900$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,978$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…ef0abacked Yes | 13c | 939.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 13c | 933.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 15c | 833.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 13c | 777$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…83fcbacked Yes | 16c | 767$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 16c | 766.04$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 14c | 737.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 627.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 18c | 556.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 16c | 366.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 14c | 350.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 15c | 345.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 254$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f68bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…2cb2backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 13c | 137.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…488abacked Yes | 13c | 115.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3c…1a61backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…70c1backed Yes | 14c | 89.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d7…e193backed Yes | 14c | 86.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Yes | 13c | 86.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…fe04backed Yes | 14c | 78.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Olympique Marseille vs. Ajax Amsterdam end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.