Champions League · resolved market
Will Olympique Marseille vs. Ajax Amsterdam end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4b628582dce58a71df1faa2eaa41040c4b982c987c015a7cf3268ece9b52b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 4,945$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 2,339$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.83 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 78c | 649.32$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.85 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 21c | 564$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 522.02$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 21c | 477.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 18c | 377.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…5840backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…53afbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f68bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 80c | 75.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…f4c1backed No | 79c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Marseille vs. Ajax Amsterdam end in a draw?this page
- Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30?No won
- Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.