NFL · resolved market
Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecbedab2e6491ad3cd22e4b51cdf4ea1d8df90967aee47472452381b52df045c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 65c | 35,155$22,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,851 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 15,000$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,750 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 7,546$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,589.77 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 63c | 6,452$4,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,064.73 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…19cbbacked Yes | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 4,986$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.11 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 68c | 4,279$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.42 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 30c | 4,118$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.26 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 36c | 2,822$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.42 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 2,380$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +630%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,083$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.5 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 67c | 1,541$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…4d61backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 32c | 999.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.99 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8f39backed Yes | 32c | 757.35$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +273.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc54…aad2backed No | 68c | 757.35$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…4b19backed No | 68c | 742.81$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…4f7ebacked Yes | 35c | 510$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 32c | 404$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 64c | 367.93$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 63c | 180$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 90 | 80%72 W · 18 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 63c | 159.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 34c | 149.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…0484backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Yes | 33c | 85.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 67c | 75.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…6565backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 64c | 61.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18e9…fd77backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…aa00backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…70c5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b78…bb79backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x144f…12c3backed Yes | 34c | 58.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99eb…77aebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Dallas Goedert score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will E.J. Jenkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Grant Calcaterra score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kenneth Gainwell score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.