NFL · resolved market
Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed6d98c28b9487600decb83e491ae06c60f0125d81a4d18ee7684f3e43052f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 76c | 5,589$4,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.46 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…410ebacked Yes | 23c | 5,269$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 23c | 5,063$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 78c | 4,679$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.12 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 78c | 4,000$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.5 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 7c | 2,801$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.11 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…901fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 78c | 1,820$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.49 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…c960backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 77c | 783.62$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 77c | 778.26$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 23c | 721.22$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 79c | 709$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.89 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 77c | 683$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…5bc8backed Yes | 24c | 640$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 22c | 629.08$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 491.77$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 79c | 485.05$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…e62bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…5598backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…6668backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 79c | 350.96$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…5d4abacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 79c | 319.99$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 20c | 249.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No | 79c | 218.73$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…8e77backed Yes | 22c | 207$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 78c | 202.52$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…1ddabacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 79c | 162.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…db8ebacked Yes | 21c | 161.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…e8dcbacked Yes | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3456…8ea6backed Yes | 24c | 148.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 148.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 24c | 137.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…0dc6backed No | 80c | 125.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24dc…c152backed Yes | 21c | 123.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes | 21c | 121.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3bd1backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…e981backed Yes | 22c | 116.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 18c | 115.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…9299backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 80c | 107.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 93.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Yes | 20c | 86.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…314dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d544backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…46fbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…695bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Dallas Goedert score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will E.J. Jenkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Grant Calcaterra score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kenneth Gainwell score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.