NFL · resolved market
Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5a3a6b1495ae97faf2a12dfa24f61e412deaf6e387a8071592164085742038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 63c | 2,868$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.57 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 37c | 2,223$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.47 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 47c | 2,060$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.43 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +630%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 1,236$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.23 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 60c | 1,135$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +520.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 61c | 745.94$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 39c | 512.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff76…9c05backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +104%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 63c | 397$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 37c | 386$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.18 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 36c | 350$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…6a1dbacked Yes | 40c | 250.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 37c | 221.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.66 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…af86backed Yes | 38c | 221.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 63c | 200.63$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0950…4803backed Yes | 38c | 194.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 62c | 164.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 146.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes | 40c | 125.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…0d39backed Yes | 39c | 123$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…aca1backed No | 63c | 120.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd872…5228backed No | 63c | 101.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…aabdbacked Yes | 38c | 87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 62c | 81.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 59c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3bd1backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…0800backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…aa00backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…ced3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…7ad5backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…a81fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…39e1backed Yes | 38c | 39.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 31.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c89…e6f7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Dallas Goedert score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will E.J. Jenkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Grant Calcaterra score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kenneth Gainwell score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.