NFL · resolved market
Who will get drafted first: Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ae5d518a03b0cff959ebece32f8b63348262fea504ccbd332c3004563f5721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wardof Sanders, Ward
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Sanders | 0c | 4,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Sanders | 1c | 1,774$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Sanders | 1c | 1,706$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Sanders | 25c | 628.29$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Sanders | 14c | 468.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Ward | 62c | 404.45$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Sanders | 56c | 400$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Ward | 64c | 390.31$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.31 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Sanders | 5c | 337.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Sanders | 34c | 301.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Sanders | 31c | 297.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Sanders | 10c | 285.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Sanders | 41c | 280.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Ward | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Ward | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Sanders | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Sanders | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Ward | 65c | 171.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…2a19backed Ward | 62c | 162.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Ward | 45c | 150.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Ward | 52c | 126.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Ward | 46c | 107.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Sanders | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…1ea2backed Sanders | 48c | 71.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…a70abacked Sanders | 34c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…2861backed Ward | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Sanders | 53c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…2c90backed Ward | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Sanders | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Sanders | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2667…362ebacked Sanders | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Ward | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Sanders | 38c | 41.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…c816backed Sanders | 47c | 40.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Ward | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…8ddabacked Sanders | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…1c1dbacked Sanders | 42c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…6765backed Ward | 58c | 31.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Sanders | 56c | 31.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Sanders | 54c | 30.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Sanders | 48c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Ward | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Sanders | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59c…b4cfbacked Ward | 40c | 25.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Ward | 69c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked Ward | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Sanders | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Sanders | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Sanders | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Ward | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Sanders | 55c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.