College Football · resolved market
Will Notre Dame beat Penn State by 2 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b0d438f7c1ad6c55a4a0a63788f4c3250445484defaad6bfde7867b15262742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Penn St
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Penn St | 52c | 2,041$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.13 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Notre Dame | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Notre Dame | 47c | 750.01$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.61 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Penn St | 54c | 500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Penn St | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Penn St | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f9…e500backed Notre Dame | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…529cbacked Penn St | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb374…2837backed Penn St | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…9fd0backed Notre Dame | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a03…c7fcbacked Penn St | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96d…6df0backed Notre Dame | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…bf8cbacked Notre Dame | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…c897backed Penn St | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…4acbbacked Notre Dame | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6935…5b3dbacked Penn St | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42eb…2bd5backed Penn St | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd505…2a80backed Penn St | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…ba48backed Notre Dame | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9080…a794backed Penn St | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Notre Dame beat Penn State by 2 or more points?this page
- Will Penn State and Notre Dame combine for 46 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.