Music · resolved market
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295170f503bf0fa77277382ccb73401470177f97625facbdfcd24116343b5bac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 3c | 12,903$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 4,838$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 15c | 4,816$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,070.15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,779$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 2,419$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 2,419$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 18c | 2,248$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 10c | 1,881$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.45 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 18c | 1,855$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.33 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 15c | 1,647$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.47 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9be3backed Yes | 12c | 1,334$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 12c | 1,292$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…6f7bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,279$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,177$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.94 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 13c | 1,147$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8f39backed Yes | 21c | 885.37$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…5456backed No | 79c | 885.37$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 54c | 840$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 71c | 690.97$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.08 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 5c | 689.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.1 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 511.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.38 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 508.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.3 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 10c | 506$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +222.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +255.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 10c | 494$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +453.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 14c | 458.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 18c | 426.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.8 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 398.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.28 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 379.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.34 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 18c | 348.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 8c | 337.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.29 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 22c | 323.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 16c | 310.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.04 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…2d90backed Yes | 19c | 307.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 19c | 289.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 7c | 274.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 7c | 256.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 245.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 15c | 237.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.64 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…6a0dbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 10c | 209.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.88 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 195.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 5c | 187.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.47 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…68a4backed Yes | 27c | 182.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 182$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 19c | 178.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…8337backed Yes | 8c | 159.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 10c | 158$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…57fabacked Yes | 17c | 151.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 145.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +311.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 139.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4997…919abacked Yes | 10c | 133.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +872.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 19c | 128.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 79c | 122.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked Yes | 15c | 121.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 102.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.73 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 19c | 91.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 17c | 88.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 18c | 82.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152a…e12dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…2c2abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed No | 79c | 17.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?this page
- Will '360' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Record of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.