Music · resolved market
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09013848a1c034e7052d49da259ae608b790ce8e8d67d58a355af3174e830ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 10c | 5,928$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 3c | 5,468$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 2,533$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.71 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,205$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.94 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 10c | 1,956$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,898$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,530$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 68 | 0%0 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 1,338$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,331$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 11c | 1,015$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 984.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 897.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1738…5456backed Yes | 12c | 780.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed Yes | 3c | 572.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…9f3cbacked Yes | 13c | 523$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 11c | 500.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…ff50backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 7c | 427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 14c | 310.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 5c | 306.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 295$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 11c | 280$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…2d90backed Yes | 13c | 274.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 11c | 271.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 9c | 252.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 13c | 188$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 30cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…8b7dbacked Yes | 20c | 180$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 6c | 162.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 12c | 161.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 12c | 156$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc8…00f1backed Yes | 12c | 135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 11c | 131.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?this page
- Will '360' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Record of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.