Music · resolved market
Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ddf7dee63dd2c67af2f5a1876b98e5959a520b6a494d59603e74a208be4879a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,829$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,906$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,847$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 1c | 1,367$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 942.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…ad71backed Yes | 2c | 786.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…ce7fbacked Yes | 15c | 668.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…e21cbacked Yes | 4c | 614.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 2c | 558.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…3ffebacked Yes | 4c | 555.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 495.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 4c | 461.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 459.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 5c | 437.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 3c | 347.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…8848backed Yes | 7c | 229.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year?this page
- Will '360' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Record of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.