Music · resolved market
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2d2f2432fa978512d7dedbabb395ca5283123b5e7c239b80b994726996df2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,415$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 8c | 2,429$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 6c | 2,083$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,564$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9be3backed Yes | 30c | 1,515$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 24c | 964.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 13c | 815.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 78c | 748.5$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 7c | 746$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 712.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 73c | 700$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 633$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…588ebacked Yes | 16c | 631.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 618.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 10c | 569.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 15c | 499.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 8c | 399$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 398.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 5c | 304.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 12c | 286.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 17c | 268.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 20c | 263.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 213.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 7c | 210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…48adbacked Yes | 18c | 198.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…6c64backed Yes | 10c | 196.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 8c | 184.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 16c | 161.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…7044backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…9dafbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 13c | 149.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 144.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 137.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6803…8d2bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…57fabacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…ad08backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…f2b9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…ff50backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfd…bdafbacked Yes | 29c | 99.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe40…e393backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 21c | 83.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…481ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 65.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…c109backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…d2b5backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d47…4406backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 58c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year?this page
- Will '360' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Fortnight' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Good Luck, Babe!' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?No won
- Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Record of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.