TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Music · resolved market

Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,972
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$90,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,972 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes78c7,238$5,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes61c6,240$3,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,804.852236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No20c3,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+60.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Yes65c2,627$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No46c2,565$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.321931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes49c2,096$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.651346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed No31c2,083$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.8650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+127%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked No39c1,830$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.711315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-59.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Yes69c1,800$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No38c1,710$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5581…cb44backed Yes64c1,604$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No41c1,548$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.9914938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+83.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6e0…b444backed Yes62c1,457$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes50c1,346$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes59c1,314$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.943228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No36c1,203$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.594615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes60c1,189$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.822030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c23…0476backed No48c1,100$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…91f8backed No48c1,100$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe325…2f78backed Yes52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x966d…a1cabacked Yes52c1,100$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No27c1,054$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.965554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb3…e5cdbacked Yes58c1,033$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5801118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb3…8391backed No40c950$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…ed60backed No40c950$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db5…82e3backed Yes60c950$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d50…6514backed Yes60c950$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes72c911.6$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Yes74c875.77$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No28c865.48$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.1910529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes62c859.62$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.381546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321a…b052backed No30c810$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No44c809$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No28c771.22$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.076746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b8…131cbacked Yes68c753.73$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51330%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No25c740.62$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.03714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x438a…62e5backed Yes48c684.94$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.7720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No31c601$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.42646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes57c599.99$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.991040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8499…42e5backed Yes64c598$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No33c560.36$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.4624732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1a…1011backed Yes62c486.1$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c477.94$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.7423339.5%92 W · 141 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed No30c474.81$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.37742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+255.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No28c460$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.929844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a7…9f3cbacked Yes61c448.74$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c4d…0b9abacked Yes60c435.33$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No28c432.43$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.232070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+93.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes59c424$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.161250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No19c419.12$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.941963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No38c391$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.424626.1%12 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83f…0917backed No42c366.16$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65af…a2a7backed Yes58c366.16$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+284.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes71c334.88$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No41c323$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.415563.6%35 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No33c321.7$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.13641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No33c318.07$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.654748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7829…9d93backed Yes68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No34c294.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.210630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed Yes69c287.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes62c283.93$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.546533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes50c270.32$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x699d…4260backed Yes74c270.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79d4…9dafbacked No52c265$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No24c246.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.77429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf806…2d90backed Yes62c241.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes59c236.33$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.081030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+69.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No37c225.01$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.912825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No29c222$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.624731.9%15 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes31c219.17$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No45c201$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No38c200$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125850%4 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+89.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No40c197.7$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.32832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No32c197.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.412416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No23c185.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.017222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…0ce8backed No41c184.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No44c181.37$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.571070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+107.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No40c180.3$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.973026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes67c180$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+184.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes63c177.7$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.931631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef17…6583backed Yes58c173.23$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes58c168.82$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.921650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…4638backed No32c166.25$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+164.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d00…d499backed Yes53c166.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.02520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d95…67a7backed Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d4c…a604backed Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No39c160$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a86…b39ebacked No31c158.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No36c152.08$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.85666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+74.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes53c149.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.49520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No22c148.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.651163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No50c145.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.955825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdee…b0d0backed Yes69c145.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.