Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate hike in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4319532e181605cb15b1bd677759a3bc7f7394b2fdf145195b700eeaedfd5221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,181,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,108,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,181,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13d7…58b3backed Yes | 15c | 74,477$11,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,129.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…2e68backed Yes | 3c | 40,697$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 7c | 35,894$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.66 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d04…7a17backed Yes | 1c | 31,046$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed Yes | 15c | 26,950$4,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,052.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 22c | 26,804$5,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,847.73 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 26,524$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.86 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 22c | 24,132$5,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,207.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…d4c2backed Yes | 2c | 18,704$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,571$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.42 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…404fbacked Yes | 2c | 16,958$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…ca9fbacked Yes | 19c | 14,607$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,332$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 12,688$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 8,802$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 34 | 2.9%1 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -96.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…f4a3backed No | 75c | 8,228$6,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,165$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 77c | 7,900$6,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 6c | 6,772$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…b8e8backed Yes | 3c | 6,765$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…b71cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,289$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 80c | 6,198$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 75c | 6,000$4,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 74c | 5,950$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 17c | 5,942$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,747$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,704$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 1c | 5,441$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…6b03backed Yes | 4c | 5,135$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…dce2backed Yes | 0c | 4,738$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 4c | 4,486$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 4,155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…8016backed Yes | 25c | 3,981$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9104…96dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,953$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,928$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 8c | 3,911$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 26c | 3,851$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…8a86backed Yes | 1c | 3,833$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…a332backed Yes | 2c | 3,729$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…08e5backed Yes | 6c | 3,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d1…31eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,071$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…6ef6backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…4277backed Yes | 2c | 2,910$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…371cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,810$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…3800backed Yes | 1c | 2,759$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 75c | 2,604$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.73 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 12c | 2,536$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 7c | 2,383$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 25c | 2,222$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…65b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d6…851dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,084$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…4fe7backed Yes | 1c | 1,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,942$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed Yes | 2c | 1,909$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 15c | 1,881$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.98 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 19c | 1,792$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 1,735$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…e56bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,729$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b56fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,703$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 3c | 1,689$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…a7c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,657$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d50…1160backed Yes | 19c | 1,562$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ada…b501backed Yes | 12c | 1,552$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…4c70backed Yes | 1c | 1,528$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…523ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,433$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 7c | 1,414$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04e0…e507backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1595…d923backed Yes | 1c | 1,378$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…02abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,376$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…18fabacked Yes | 22c | 1,334$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 77c | 1,300$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…ce3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,253$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe654…6987backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…73dbbacked Yes | 25c | 1,215$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…d582backed Yes | 8c | 1,175$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…37f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…42b4backed Yes | 16c | 1,129$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…e238backed Yes | 2c | 1,088$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…87d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,026$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…b256backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…1538backed Yes | 25c | 1,002$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…ce25backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 986.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…1172backed Yes | 18c | 919.28$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 875.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 20c | 851.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 11c | 850$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…3f7ebacked Yes | 2c | 841.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…7703backed Yes | 26c | 759.58$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…01babacked Yes | 19c | 750.09$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x621f…9c10backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…959cbacked No | 80c | 747.57$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.