Us Politics · resolved market
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19489d6de9495485e7e11e37401b22759cb981f558913e5b9ebe30ae8630b09a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ef…88a1backed Yes | 0c | 11,330$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed No | 34c | 8,703$2,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,729.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 76c | 6,588$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 4,119$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.56 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 18c | 3,296$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.96 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 74c | 3,270$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.09 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 39c | 3,243$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.99 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…78e8backed Yes | 0c | 2,715$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed Yes | 2c | 2,322$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 6c | 2,311$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 63c | 2,070$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 65c | 1,832$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.68 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…00c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,731$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 34c | 1,728$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.75 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,634$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.89 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 52c | 1,403$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.04 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 69c | 1,268$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.18 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…9bd8backed Yes | 2c | 1,209$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 1,100$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 50c | 1,059$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.57 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 65c | 1,040$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 74c | 1,031$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.24 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 23c | 999.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…d4bbbacked Yes | 2c | 990.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 51c | 859.87$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 44c | 800$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed Yes | 7c | 694.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…853ebacked Yes | 14c | 622.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 4c | 611.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 608.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 66c | 608.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 22c | 600$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 66c | 600$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.63 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 37c | 563.67$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 66c | 544.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 44c | 500$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.63 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 66c | 499.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 21c | 499.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 4c | 494.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 22c | 474.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 465.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…40f3backed Yes | 5c | 444.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed Yes | 6c | 442.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7074…2a3fbacked Yes | 5c | 416.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 78c | 404.25$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 66c | 387.38$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.67 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 24c | 331.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 15c | 280$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 22c | 275$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 51c | 262.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf09…ac98backed Yes | 16c | 251.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 78c | 244.33$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 33c | 238.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 66c | 191$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 185.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 35c | 173$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 16c | 159.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 73c | 121.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed No | 36c | 116.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 21c | 110.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 78c | 103.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…2bd2backed No | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…5b91backed No | 75c | 88.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 69c | 84.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7c…4d69backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 83.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed Yes | 28c | 70.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f15bbacked Yes | 70c | 58.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe87…ffdbbacked Yes | 69c | 53.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…4bb1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 71c | 45.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed No | 57c | 43.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…2f28backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…a7cebacked No | 34c | 32.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…9230backed No | 44c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…6096backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…09f7backed Yes | 57c | 28.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 68c | 26.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…0a90backed Yes | 69c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…6ecdbacked Yes | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…3b99backed Yes | 70c | 19.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 65c | 15.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…a776backed Yes | 69c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…7674backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?this page
- Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 200-250k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 250-300k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 300-350k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 350-400k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 400-450k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 450-500k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?Yes won
- Will 500k or more federal employees accept the buyout?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.