Us Politics · resolved market
Will 200-250k federal employees accept the buyout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972c866e5da0a54b186a346fc8710fc43ae749b80d4be5f0ab04d5a6d75e1c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x470f…400fbacked Yes | 0c | 87,100$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 7c | 4,698$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.87 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,229$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…00c1backed Yes | 0c | 2,591$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,426$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…fa2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,432$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,145$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…0c64backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 1c | 880.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 5c | 643.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 559.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…c8cebacked Yes | 4c | 492.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 8c | 283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 200-250k federal employees accept the buyout?this page
- Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 250-300k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 300-350k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 350-400k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 400-450k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 450-500k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?Yes won
- Will 500k or more federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.